It is do or die time for the Panthers, after losing their last two games of the regular season. They now have to win the ACC Tournament game versus Syracuse. If they fail it very well could mean a second consecutive NIT appearance.
Syracuse looked great in mid February with an 18-8 overall and 8-5 ACC records. As well, the Orange had big wins against Duke (away), Texas A&M, and Notre Dame. Then everything went south, as they stumbled down the stretch losing four of their last five. The worst of those losses came at home against Pitt by 14. ESPN bracketology analyst, Joe Lunardi, has them currently as part of the last four in with an 11 seed. However, a loss against the Panthers could foreseeably push them out.
Pitt’s end of the season mirrors the Orange’s in a way. After surviving a scare from Wake Forest they won two of their next three, only losing to Louisville. One of those wins was at Syracuse and the other was a domination of Duke. Since the Duke game the Panthers have done everything in their power to lose a spot in the big dance. This last week they lost to both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. Both of those do look like probable NIT teams and both games were played away, but a third loss in a row to close the season would be the lasting impression for the voters. As it currently stands, according to Lunardi, Pitt is on the last four byes as a 10 seed. Like ‘Cuse though a loss could have them stumble into the NIT.
Keys:
Rebound- In the first meeting of these two teams Pitt had 43 rebounds to Syracuse’s 24, and won the offensive boards 19 to eight. The second meeting was more of the same, as Pitt had 43 rebounds to Syracuse’s 23 and won the offensive glass decisively 14 to six. The reason for that is the Panthers relentlessly attack the glass whenever they can, while the Orange play a zone defense, which makes it harder to locate men and box out. As well, dominating the glass will force this into a half court game and that really plays in Pitt’s favor.
Some Outside Game- In the last two games Pitt has shot 3-32 from three, and it has really killed them. The Panthers have to be able to make some perimeter shots versus a zone defense or it will be too hard for their big men to operate. That does not mean they should just jack up threes, but rather run the offense and if it is open take the shot.
Engage Defensively- In the February 20 meeting Syracuse shot 37.3% from the floor. The reason for that was obvious, as Pitt forced them into difficult shots all afternoon long. When this Pitt team is locked in they look like an NCAA tournament team. However, when they are not games like Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech happen.
Match-Up to Watch:
Jamel Artis vs. Syracuse Zone- In two meetings this season Artis is averaging 19.5 points, six assists, and 10 rebounds per game, while shooting 56.5% from the field and 36.3% from three. He is the go to offense against the zone and that is exactly why a big game is a must. Unfortunately the last two games of the season he is averaging 5.5 points on 3-17 from the floor and 0-7 from three. Not exactly a hot hand going into Wednesday’s must win.
Prediction:
Pitt has won four straight versus Syracuse, but a lot of that has to do with Artis being able to pick apart zone defenses. With his declining play it will be hard to get past the Orange. Fortunately he is not the only Panther player with experience against this zone, guys like Michael Young, James Robinson, and Sheldon Jeter have seen their fair share. As well, the zone is susceptible to offensive rebounding, which is great news for Pitt. At the end of the day the Panthers should come out on top, but this game really could go either way.
Final Score: Pitt-70 Syracuse-66