The number nine ranked Virginia Cavaliers come to Pittsburgh this weekend for an ACC battle. The winner of this contest moves into third place and will control an important tiebreaker.
To start the season Virginia lost the second game of the season at George Washington and looked like the loss of Justin Anderson could be fatal. That away loss has started a trend for the Cavaliers, just compare their big home wins to their bad away losses. At home they beat currently ranked teams such as numbers three Villanova, 14 West Virginia, and 17 Miami. Away on the other hand they lost to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. During their recent five game win streak the Cavaliers might have shaken off that away bug, by beating number 16 Louisville by 16 on the road. This game at the Pete will tell if they truly are back to last year’s form.
Pitt is a confusing team when it comes down to it. They have an RPI of 27th, strength of schedule at 83rd, and are 7-4 versus teams currently in the top 100. As well, their only truly bad loss was a 17-point blowout at the hands of a 12-11 NC State team. Finally, they sit at a 17-4 record overall and 6-3 in the ACC, which is good enough for fifth in the conference. All of that makes it seem like the Panthers are a good team, but their best wins of the season are Notre Dame, Florida State, and Syracuse. None of those teams are in the top 25 and that is exactly why people are not sold on Pitt. Beating Virginia will give them the signature win the Panthers desperately need to prove they belong.
Key to Victory:
Start Fast- The Peterson Events Center has been a notoriously hard place to get win, especially if you are a top ten team. The Oakland Zoo makes it difficult to hear and with a blackout promotion schedule the whole arena will be rocking. That is why it is key to start right out of the gate fast. If Virginia takes an early lead they can dictate the tempo and the crowd. However, the Panthers coming out swinging will not only pump the crowd up, but also give the players the confidence they need to succeed.
Hit Open Shots- The Cavaliers only let up 60.5 points per game, which is sixth best nationally. Their defense is dominant, forcing teams into difficult shots all game. That is why when Pitt does get clean looks they have to convert them. Against a team like this, it is absolutely critical.
Role Players Step Up- Michael Young and Jamel Artis are the main guys on offense, but they cannot do everything. Virginia will be well aware of where those guys are located on the court at all times. That means other players like, James Robinson, Sheldon Jeter, Sterling Smith, Chris Jones, Cameron Johnson, Ryan Luther, and Damon Wilson will have more opportunities to make plays. If they play hesitant the Cavaliers will suffocate Pitt’s offensive attack.
Match-up to Watch:
Jamel Artis vs. Malcolm Brogdon- Both of these guys are in the running for ACC player of the year. Brogdon averages 17.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. Compared to Artis’ 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. And in this game the two small forwards should be guarding each other. Pitt has struggled stopping scorers all season, so forcing Brogdon into difficult shots must happen. While at the same time Artis needs to make him burn energy on defense and that is exactly why this match-up is so important.
Prediction:
This game is a must win for Pitt, because they need a signature victory and after this they play two away games versus North Carolina and Miami, who are both ranked. If they want to keep their position in the ACC, losing a home game versus Virginia cannot happen. As well, even with their recent win streak Virginia is not good on the road and this game has the feel of a Pitt win. However, Virginia’s style of play will make this one a battle.
Final Score: Pitt-72 Virginia-66